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Population and household projections for smaller areas - the theory

This paper covered, in general terms, a series of topics which the developer of a set of local and small area population projections needs to consider in planning the work.

The topics include:

• decisions about the production of projections,
• the system of interest which the projections attempt to model and forecast,
• the modelling alternatives which are available,
• thinking about the main demographic assumptions and some questions about future proofing the projections.

The arguments presented were illustrated with examples from recent work by the author for both small areas and regions. The presentation constitutes a series of planning steps which an agency charged with population projection needs to work through and make decisions about.