You are in: Home › Statistics › Statistics by Theme › Population › Population Projections › Small Area Population Projections ›
Background
Population projections are produced every two years by the National Records of Scotland (NRS), formerly the General Register Office for Scotland, for various administrative areas of Scotland – council, NHS board, and strategic development plan areas. However, apart from the two national parks, no projections are done by NRS for small areas of Scotland. This is because there is no standard small area that is used throughout Scotland and it is not practical for NRS to produce population projections for small area geographies, either systematically or on request.
NRS has carried out research with Professor Ludi Simpson from the Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR) at the University of Manchester into the demographic data needed to allow councils and health boards to produce population projections at small area level using data zones as building blocks. The research investigated the effect of including detailed demographic data, such as ‘age of mother’ for fertility rates, on the population projections, and what data could be made available to ensure the most robust results possible at small area level.
The research findings give details of the work carried out and the outcomes of the investigation. The recommended data requirements for the production of small area population projections are also available.
Guidance
NRS and CCSR have produced guidance for council and NHS board areas who need to run population projections for small areas. The guidance has been written for users of POPGROUP but can be adapted for other suitable software. Guidance has also been produced for small area household projections using HOUSEGROUP and Derived Forecasts.
PDF files require Acrobat Reader. Download Acrobat Reader free
POPGROUP
In order to run population projections it is necessary have the appropriate software package. NRS, along with a number of local authorities, uses POPGROUP software to produce population and household projections for sub-national areas of Scotland. POPGROUP is an Excel-based system developed by the Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR) at the University of Manchester that uses standard demographic methods to generate projections.
A group has been set up to allow POPGROUP users in Scotland to meet and share knowledge and experiences.
POPGROUP User Group (PUG) (Scotland) Meetings
Please contact our Customer Services if you need any further information.
E-mail: customer@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk
If you have comments or suggestions that would help us improve our outputs or our standards of service, contact:
Kirsty MacLachlan, Senior Statistician,
National Records of Scotland,
Room 1/2/3, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh. EH12 7TF.
Telephone: (0131) 314 4242
E-mail: kirsty.maclachlan@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk.
Page last updated: 16 November 2011
If you have any comments about this website please use our contact form.
© Crown Copyright 2012