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Estimates of the population by Country of Birth and Nationality from the Annual Population Survey (APS) are published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The figures differ from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) mid-year population estimates as the APS excludes students in halls who do not have a parent resident in the UK and people in most other types of communal establishments (e.g. hotels, boarding houses, hostels, mobile home sites etc).
The ONS estimates include Scotland and are updated on a quarterly basis. The latest figures are for the period to end of June 2011 and can be found on the ONS website. The estimates on the ONS website include further detail on the area of origin than shown in Table 3 and Table 4 below, as the data is split into Republic of Ireland, non-European Union (EU), and EU classifications.
The latest figures for the year to the end of June 2011 show that the number of people living in Scotland who were born outside the UK is estimated to be 334,000. The 5 most common overseas countries of birth were Poland (57,000), India (24,000), Republic of Ireland (22,000), Germany (22,000) and Pakistan (17,000).
For the same time period the number of people with non-British nationality living in Scotland was estimated to be 254,000. The most common nationalities are from Poland (60,000), Republic of Ireland (21,000), India (15,000), Pakistan (12,000) and United States of America (11,000).
As with all sample surveys there is an element of error associated with these estimates. As a general rule of thumb, if confidence intervals for an estimate overlap then there is not a statistically significant difference between estimates. For example, we can be confident that the true estimate of people living in Scotland who were born outside the UK lies in the range 314,000 to 354,000 for the year to end June 2011, with a probability of 95 per cent. The equivalent estimate for the period to end June 2010 was 326,000 with a 95 per cent confidence interval of 307,000 to 345,000. This ‘overlaps’ with the previous period’s estimate, and therefore the difference between these two years is not considered statistically significant. However, for a different time period, it may be that the confidence intervals do not overlap, for example, estimates of the number of people living in Scotland who were not born in the UK for 2004 to 2010.
Estimates from 2004 to 2010 for population by country of birth and nationality are summarised in Table 1 and Table 2 below and more detail is on the ONS website. The estimates show a significant difference in the number of people living in Scotland who were born outside the UK. In 2004, 204,000 people living in Scotland were estimated to have been born outside of the UK compared with 326,000 in 2010, an increase of 122,000. Similarly the number of people with non-British nationality living in Scotland was estimated to have grown from 127,000 in 2004 to 248,000 in 2010, an increase of 121,000.
Background Information (PDF 25 Kb)
Council area level estimates, broken down into the two categories ‘UK’ and ‘Non-UK’, can be found in the tables below
The tables below have been made available as Excel spreadsheets and can be viewed in Comma Separated Value (CSV) or Adobe Acrobat Portable Document Format (PDF).
When opening the spreadsheet files your browser, depending on how it's been configured, will prompt to either open the file or save it to disk.
Maximum file size is 105 Kb.
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Table 1 |
Estimated population resident in Scotland, by Council area and country of birth, 2004-2010
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Table 2 |
Estimated population resident in Scotland, by Council area and nationality, 2004-2010
(Excel CSV PDF) |
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Table 3 |
Estimated population resident in Scotland, by Council area and country of birth, April 2007 to June 2011 (latest quarterly update: 23 February 2012)
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Table 4 |
Estimated population resident in Scotland, by Council area and nationality, April 2007 to June 2011 (latest quarterly update: 23 February 2012)
(Excel CSV PDF) |
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Page last updated: 16 March 2012
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