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Projected Population of Scotland (2004-based):
4. Comparisons with previous projections

4.1 The last full set of projections were based on the mid-year population estimate for 2002 and the more recent interim set the 2003 mid-year estimate. The key changes from previously published projections in terms of births, deaths and total population are shown in Table 5a, Table 5b and Table 5c respectively. Section 4.4 looks at the differences in the migration assumptions between the projections. Note that national projections are usually produced every two years – the next set will be 2006-based and are due to be published in 2007.

4.2 Figure 6 compares the 2004-based projection with previous projections and shows that the level of the population under the latest projection is higher and that the decline has been deferred to the 2020s.

4.3 The difference between the projections is due to the different assumptions made about fertility, mortality and migration. The natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) for the 2004-based projection compared with previous projections is shown in Figure 7. The number of births is projected to be slightly higher and the number of deaths is projected to be broadly similar to the 2002 and 2003-based projections resulting in a reduced natural decrease. More information on the reasons for the differences is given in section 3 and Annex A, Annex B and Annex C.

4.4 The overall long-term migration assumption has been changed from the assumption used in the last full (2002 based projections) and interim 2003 national projections from –1,500 per annum,  to +4,000 per annum:-

	2002/2003-based	2004-based
International migration	-1,500	+2,500
Internal migration	0	+1,500
Net migration	-1,500	+4,000

4.5 This increase in the assumption for the 2004-based projections compared with the 2 previous sets arises because the projections are trend based and more people migrated to Scotland from the rest of the UK and overseas in the last couple of years. This is described in "Scotland's Population 2004 - The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends" and is available on this website.

4.6 The tables below summarise the differences between the current 2004 and the interim 2003-based projections.  The difference in results for the projected age structure of Scotland is small, but show slightly less people to be of pensionable age with an increase in the working age population in 2031. The projected number of dependents (both children and pensioners) per 100 of working age show a small decrease in 2031.

Age Group [Footnote 1]	2003-based		2004-based
	2004	2031	2004	2031
Children	18.4%	15.7%	18.4%	15.7%
Working age	62.5%	57.9%	62.5%	58.5%
Pension age	19.1%	26.5%	19.1%	25.8%

Age Group [Footnote 1] (per 100 people of working age)	2003-based		2004-based
	2004	2031	2004	2031
Children	29.5	27.0	29.5	26.8
Pensioners	30.5	45.8	30.5	44.2
All dependants	60.0	72.8	60.0	70.9

Footnote