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Projected Population of Scotland (2004-based) Variant Projections

Annex A - Background and List of Available Variants

Background

The 2004-based projections are the latest for which variant projections have been published for Scotland. A list of the principal and variant assumptions can be found in the tables below. Detailed results can be found within the Projections database section of the Government Actuary's Department website.

List of Available Variants

The 2004-based variant population projections are based on the following categories of assumptions.

Table A - Assumptions

	Fertility	Life Expectancy	Migration
Standard variants
A	High	High	High
B	Principal	Principal	Principal
C	Low	Low	Low
Special case scenarios
D	Replacement	No improvement	Zero
E	Constant

From these assumptions, the following 19 projection variants have been created.

Table B - Variants

		Fertility	Life expectancy	Migration
1	Principal projection	Principal	Principal	Principal
Standard 'single component' variants
2	High fertility	High	Principal	Principal
3	Low fertility	Low	Principal	Principal
4	High life expectancy	Principal	High	Principal
5	Low life expectancy	Principal	Low	Principal
6	High migration	Principal	Principal	High
7	Low migration	Principal	Principal	Low
Standard 'combination' variants
8	High population	High	High	High
9	Low population	Low	Low	Low
10	Young	High	Low	High
11	Old	Low	High	Low
12	High medium-term dependency [Footnote 1]	High	High	Low
13	Low medium-term dependency [Footnote 1]	Low	Low	High
Special case scenarios
14	Replacement fertility	Replacement	Principal	Principal
15	Constant fertility	Constant	Principal	Principal
16	No mortality improvement	Principal	No improvement	Principal
17	Natural change only (zero migration)	Principal	Principal	Zero
18	No change	Constant	No improvement	Principal
19	Stationary	Replacement	No improvement	Zero

Footnote

1. In the long-term, the Old and Young variants produce the highest and lowest (respectively) overall dependency ratios of all the possible combination variants.