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Occasional Papers

Modelling Census Under-Enumeration - A Logistic Regression Perspective

Results - Summary

The results of the modelling exercise showed that there were a number of Deprivation and Census independent variables that had some power at predicting under-enumeration. The best model was achieved by firstly, formulating a basic plan for selecting the model variables and secondly, using variety of methods to assess the adequacy of the model both in terms of its individual variables and its overall fit.

Therefore, the final model with the best fit included the following variables:

• Income Deprivation
• Health Deprivation
• Shared dwellings
• Private rented accommodation
• Over-crowding
• Residents aged 25-29
• Single residents
• Female Single Parents
• Residents in intermediate occupations
• Non-car ownership

Therefore, for brevity, under-enumeration can be said to be a function of deprivation factors – income and health deprivation, non-car ownership, over-crowding and multi-occupancy; and transience factors – privately rented accommodation, intermediate occupational class, single (never married) and young people (aged 25-29). The number of young single mothers in an area could be construed to fit into both transience and deprivation categories