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Occasional Paper

Final Modelling Stage

Having determined which amalgamated Deprivation, Hard to Count and Other Census variables are associated with under-enumeration, the final modelling stage seeks to identify which independent variables are significant predictors, controlling for all other variables.

A series of logistic regression analyses were carried out and the results are shown below in Table 4.5.1(a) (11 Kb PDF file).

Access has a non-significant p-value; hence another model is fitted with the sub-index removed. The analysis yields the model below – the best model. Since income and access have been fitted as categorical variables they have.

Table 4.5.1(b) (11 Kb PDF file) gives a Type III Analysis to Census and Multiple Depravation Variables. Table 4.5.2 (15 Kb PDF file) Provides an Analysis of Maximum Likelihood Estimates.

The Final Model (19 Kb PDF file) reveals which Deprivation and Census variables are significant and independent predictors of under-enumeration. When all the variables found to be significant in Models 1- 4 are placed in the regression model simultaneously, any association that Group_0 and access have with under-enumeration is better accounted for by the remaining variables.

Notice how the over_crowd coefficient changes from a large negative (-1.84) from Model 3 (19 Kb PDF file) to a large positive (+1.50) in this final model. The large positive is more plausible – it would be expected that the more overcrowded a household is, the greater the likelihood of being missed. However, there is evidence to suggest that this is true only to a certain extent. Changing household structures, working patterns etc. have meant that it is increasingly difficult to contact one person and adult couple households, which have significantly increased in the past 30 years (Miller, 2003).

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