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Modelling Census Under-Enumeration - A Logistic Regression Perspective

The Scottish 2001 Census - Population Density

The population density (which measures the number of residents per hectare) is a further important variable. As the enumeration districts are grouped based on contiguous postcodes, it is important to know how many residents there are, in order to evenly allocate the workloads of each Census enumerator.

During the preliminary analysis, carried out prior to embarking on modelling the under-enumeration, it was found that a proxy measure of population density was the lowest floor level of the household or dwelling. Figures 1.2.7 (14 Kb PDF file) and Figure 1.2.8 (16 Kb PDF file) show how areas that are densely populated have a larger proportion of tenements.

The floor level was also found to be easier to interpret during the analysis since it is a categorical variable – with three distinct categories: first floor, second floor and third floor or higher. On the other hand, the population density is a continuous variable and cannot be easily split into distinct non-overlapping groups. The local authority with the lowest density is Highland with a population density of 0.08, while Glasgow City has the highest with a population density of 32.93. This difference between the least and most densely populated areas is much more pronounced when comparing at a ward level – parts of inner Glasgow have densities in excess of 100 – and leads to some interpretational difficulties.

Figure 1.2.8(a) (42 Kb PDF file) depicts the linear relationship between floor level and population density much more clearer. This relationship is much more pronounced at a local authority level, where the correlation between the number of third floor or higher households and the population density is 0.863.

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