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Probable Suicides: Deaths which are the Result of Intentional Self-harm or Events of Undetermined Intent

Last updated: 6 August 2010

This section presents information on the numbers of deaths which were known to be, or are thought likely to be, the result of intentional self-harm.

Main Points

• In 2009, there were 746 probable suicides, 97 (12%) fewer than in 2008 (see Table 1).
• The number of probable suicides may fluctuate from year to year. Chart 1 shows the 5-year moving average (as an indication of any overall trend) and the likely range of statistical variability around it (which is explained towards the foot of this page). The overall trend has been generally downward since around 2000. However, it may have been levelling off recently: the latest seven year's figures have all been around 800-or-so (ranging from 746 to 843), and the latest four 5-year moving averages have all been close to 800 (see Table 1).
• Over the longer-term, broadly speaking, the annual number of probable suicides was roughly 650 in the mid-1970s, rose during the rest of the decade, was around 700-750 during the 1980s, increased in the 1990s to almost 900 at the start of the new century, and then declined to about 800 in recent years (see Table 1). Again, Chart 1 shows that there were many year-to-year fluctuations: over the period covered by the figures, they have ranged from 642 in 1974 to 912 in 1993.
• Around three-quarters of all probable suicides are men: 74% in 2009, and between 72% and 77% in every year since 1990 (see Table 1).
• In recent years, the most common method of suicide has been ‘hanging, strangulation and suffocation’ (44% in 2009), followed by ‘poison’ (32%). 9% killed themselves by jumping or falling from a high place, and 6% by drowning or submersion; only 1% used firearms or explosives. Methods of suicide have changed over the years. In the 1970s over half took poison, only about one in eight used hanging, and almost a fifth drowned (see Table 2).
• 2-3% of the suicides in Scotland each year are people whose usual residence was outwith Scotland (see Table 2).
• The number of suicides by age fluctuates from year to year. Over the latest five years, the largest numbers of suicides have in the following age-groups: 40-44 (105 per year, on average); 35-39 (94 per year, on average); 45-49 (84 per year, on average); and 30-34 (82 per year, on average). However the pattern has changed over the years. In the second half of the 1990s the largest numbers were in the following age-groups: 25-29, 30-34 and 35-39, with annual averages of 108, 106 and 93, respectively; the corresponding figure for 40-44 year olds was only 78 (see Table 3).
• Tables 4 and 5 give figures for each Health Board and Council area, which can fluctuate markedly from year to year, so the tables include 5-year moving annual averages, which should indicate better any overall trend. 

The definition of the statistics

• intentional self-harm (ICD-9 codes E950-959; ICD-10 codes X60-X84 plus Y87.0, which is for sequelae of intentional self-harm); and
• events of undetermined intent (ICD-9 codes E980-989; ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34 plus Y87.2, which is for sequelae of events of undetermined intent).

'Intentional self-harm' includes cases where it is clear from (e.g.) a note that was left, or something that the deceased had said or done, that the person's intention was suicide. 'Intentional self-harm' also includes cases where the evidence establishes that a person died as a result of self-inflicted injuries, even if it is not clear that suicide was the intention - so this category will include a death that was the result of a 'cry for help' that went wrong, because the death was caused by the deceased harming him/herself intentionally.

'Events of undetermined intent' are cases where it is not clear whether the death was the result of intentional self-harm, an accident or an assault. For example, if a body is washed up on the shore of a firth, it may not be possible to establish whether the person jumped in with suicide in mind, drowned accidentally (e.g. having slipped and fallen in), or was deliberately pushed in.

Because it is thought that most of the deaths which are classified as being the result of 'events of undetermined intent' are likely to be suicides, it is conventional to combine them with the 'intentional self-harm' deaths to produce these statistics. This will over-estimate the true number of suicides, because some 'undetermined intent' deaths will not have been suicides - but their numbers are unknown. Deaths in the two youngest age-groups are not likely to be suicides, but it may not have been determined whether they were the result of an accident or an assault.

The statistics are produced using the General Register Office for Scotland's (GROS) classification, for statistical purposes, of the causes of deaths, in terms of the ICD rules. An 'intentional self-harm' code is used only in cases where it is clear to GROS that it is appropriate, on the basis of what was recorded on the death certificate or of information from other official sources (such as the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, a pathologist, or the doctor who certified the death) that had been received by the time that GROS 'freezes' its statistical database for the calendar year, around the middle of the following year (e.g. GROS 'froze' its statistical database for 2007 towards the end of June 2008). There will be deaths for which information that subsequently comes to light would have resulted in a different classification, had GROS known of it before it 'froze' the statistical database. GROS does not revise its statistical classification of deaths after it has 'frozen' its database, because that would change the figures whenever new evidence came to light, possibly many years later. The figures will therefore be higher than would be the case if (say) one counted only those deaths which had been confirmed as suicide following the completion of the relevant legal processes. During 2009, there was a change to the way in which GROS was told which deaths should be counted as suicides. This changed the balance between the numbers of deaths counted as being due to 'events of undetermined intent' and 'intentional self-harm', but appears to have had little effect on the overall total. For further information, see How GROS Classifies Deaths for Statistical Purposes as (Probable) Suicides.

The numbers of suicides can fluctuate markedly from year to year, particularly for the smaller Health Board and Council areas. Therefore, some of the tables include 5-year moving annual averages, as these should provide a better indication of the overall long-term trend than the figures for the individual years. 

As well as the figures for Scotland as a whole and the 5-year moving average, the Chart also shows the likely range of values around the moving average. This likely range of statistical variability in the figures is estimated by assuming that the numbers represent the outcome of a Poisson process, with the underlying rate of occurrence in each year being the same as the value of the 5-year moving average which is centred on that year. 'Upper' and 'lower' boundaries of an approximate '95% confidence interval' around the moving average are calculated by adding/subtracting twice the standard deviation (For a Poisson distribution, the mean and the variance are the same, so the standard deviation is simply the square root of the moving average). For the period from 1976 to 2005 (inclusive), two of the 30 years have a figure which is outwith this range - broadly in line with what one would predict based on statistical theory (only about 5% of observations would be expected to fall outwith an approximate 95% confidence interval). 

The 'Suicide' section of the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO) web site provides further statistics about suicides, including:

• standardised mortality ratios, with confidence intervals, for Health Board and Local Authority areas; and
• comparisons with the statistics for other parts of the UK and some other countries in Europe.

The ScotPHO web section also provides other relevant information.

List of Tables and Chart

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