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Scotland's Population to Continue to Rise

Scotland’s population is projected to rise from 5.22 million in 2010 to 5.49 million in 2020, and to reach 5.76 million by 2035, according to the Projected Population of Scotland (2010-based), a report issued today by the National Records of Scotland.

Commenting on the results, the Senior Statistician, Kirsty MacLachlan said:

“The latest projections suggest a bigger rise in Scotland’s population than we expected when we published our previous set two years ago. That’s because the birth rate has remained high and migration has risen again in the last two years. These factors have raised the starting-point for our new figures. They also suggest that Scotland’s population will continue to rise.”

“The new projections indicate that Scotland’s population may have reached its highest ever level this year, rising above the 1974 record of 5.24 million. But we will have to wait for the census results published next year to get a more accurate estimate of the current population.”

The new projections are based on the estimated population of Scotland in mid-2010. They replace previous projections based on the mid-2008 estimates. The projections show what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends and do not take account of any future changes as a result of policy initiatives. They are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy.

The main points in the report are:

• The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.22 million in 2010 to 5.49 million in 2020, and to continue to rise to 5.76 million in 2035 – an increase of 10 per cent over the 25 year period;
   
• between 2010 and 2020 the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by 5 per cent from 0.91 to 0.96 million. It is then projected to decrease slightly to 0.94 million in 2035 (a 3 per cent increase compared with 2010);
   
• the number of people of working age is projected to increase from 3.27 million in 2010 to 3.45 million in 2020 (an increase of 6 per cent). Following a small dip, the projected working age population then increases to 3.50 million by 2035 (an increase of 7 per cent from 2010);
   
• the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise from 1.04 million in 2010 to 1.07 million in 2020 (an increase of 3 per cent). It is then projected to rise more rapidly, reaching 1.32 million in 2035 (an increase of around 26 per cent compared with 2010);
   
• the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 23 per cent in the first ten years of the projection period, from 0.41 million in 2010 to 0.50 million in 2020. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.74 million in 2035 – an increase of 82 per cent over the 25 year period;
   
• the dependency ratio – the ratio of people aged under 16 and over pensionable age to those of working age – is projected to rise from around 60 per 100 in 2010 to 64 per 100 working age population in 2035.