Population Projections for Scotland's Council Areas

22 January 2008

Scotland’s expected population increase is likely to be unevenly spread across the country, according to a report issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the report, the Registrar General Duncan Macniven said:

“Scotland is not a single country demographically. Over the next 25 years, we expect the population of Scotland to increase by about 5 per cent. But Perth and Kinross and West Lothian are likely to grow more than four times as much, while we expect that the number of people in Inverclyde and East Dunbartonshire will fall by about one-seventh.”

The report concentrates on the period between 2006 and 2031. Its main conclusions are that:

The population of 15 of the 32 council areas in Scotland is projected to increase, while the population in the other 17 is projected to decrease.
The council areas with the greatest projected increase in population (+22 per cent) are Perth & Kinross and West Lothian.
Inverclyde and East Dunbartonshire have the largest projected decreases (-15 per cent).
The age of the population of every part of Scotland is expected to increase, to a greater or lesser extent.
The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease in 24 of the 32 council areas, with the largest percentage decreases in Shetland (-31 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-29 per cent). The biggest increases are projected in East Lothian (+15 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+14 per cent).
The population of working age is projected to increase in 14 council areas and decrease in 18, increasing the most in Edinburgh (+18 per cent) and decreasing the most in East Dunbartonshire (-25 per cent).
The population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all council areas, the largest increases being projected in Aberdeenshire (+76 per cent) and West Lothian (+58 per cent).
The population in 2024 is expected to be higher in all but 6 council areas, compared to the last projections in December 2005. The 6 areas are Argyll & Bute, East Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, West Lothian, Midlothian and East Dunbartonshire.
It is hard to predict how many people will migrate to and from Scotland. If Scotland were to gain twice as many people from migration than expected, the populations in 23 councils would increase. The greatest increase is again projected in Perth & Kinross (+28 per cent) and the largest decrease again in Inverclyde (-13 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-12 per cent).

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