The Registrar General's Review of Scotland's Population

27 July 2007

Deaths in Scotland in 2006 were outnumbered by births for the first time since 1994.

This is one of the key findings in Scotland's Population 2006, the Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends, published today.

For the fourth successive year, Scotland's population increased in the year to mid-2006, with 21,000 more people coming to Scotland than leaving. Without the effect of migration, the population would have fallen slightly.

However, in the full 2006 calendar year, there were more births than deaths - for the first time since 1994 - by a margin of 600.

Duncan Macniven, the Registrar General said: "The fact that there were more births than deaths for the first time in 12 years was thanks to both an increase in the number of births and a decrease in the number of deaths."

"There were almost 1,000 fewer marriages in 2006 than in 2005, while the number of divorces increased by almost 20 per cent.

"The sharp increase in the number of divorces was mainly the result of a change in the law which shortened the periods of separation before a couple can divorce.

"2006 was the first full year of same-sex civil partnerships - and there were more than 1,000 registered throughout the year."

The special theme of this year's report is regional variations, giving a new insight into differences across Scotland and providing evidence of the depth and nature of the inequalities in life expectancy and other demographic variables.

Mr Macniven said:"This special chapter in the report spotlights the markedly poorer performance of most of West Central Scotland compared to the rest of the country.

"The disparity appears to have increased rather than reduced.

"And most rural areas in Scotland are doing better than we realised. Once the effect of different age structures is removed, they have generally high birth rates and low death rates and are attractive to migrants - not only from elsewhere in Scotland, but also further afield.

Other key points in the report are:

Population

For the fourth year running, Scotland's population rose in the year to June 2006 - increasing by 22,100 to 5,116,900. The increase was caused by net in-migration - a net gain of around 8,900 from the rest of the UK and around 12,700 from the rest of the world. Scotland's population has increased by around 25,000 since 1996. The biggest increases in population in the last decade were in West Lothian, East Lothian and Stirling. Eilean Siar, Dundee City and Inverclyde experienced the largest decreases during the same period.

Births

There were 55,690 births in 2006 – 1,304 more than in 2005. The average age of the mother at childbirth was 29.5 – compared with 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977 and 27.4 in 1964. The total fertility rate rose to 1.67 in 2006, higher than the historic low of 1.48 in 2002, but much lower than the 1964 peak of 3.09 and the ‘replacement level’ of about 2.1. The proportion of births to unmarried parents continued to rise, to 48 per cent of all births in 2006, compared with 36 per cent in 1996.

Deaths

There were 55,093 deaths in 2006 – 654 fewer than in 2005 and the lowest total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855. There were 5.3 stillbirths per thousand births (live and still) in 2006, the same rate as 2005 and a reduction from 13.1 per thousand in 1971. The two most common causes of death in 2006 were cancer (27 per cent) and coronary heart disease (17 per cent). A male baby born in 2006 could expect to live for 74.8 years and a female baby for 79.7 years – increases from 69.1 and 75.4 for those born in 1981. Life expectancy is almost one year lower than the EU average for Scottish males and almost two years for Scottish females.

Marriages

There were 29,898 marriages in Scotland in 2006 – 983 fewer than in 2005. In the 1970s, there were typically more than 40,000 marriages every year. ‘Tourist weddings’ are still an important feature – more than a quarter of the marriages in 2006 involved couples where neither party lived in Scotland. Almost half of those marriages took place at Gretna. But the number of ‘tourist weddings’ went down by 738 in 2006, including 471 fewer at Gretna. Divorced people accounted for more than a quarter of people marrying in 2006 – an increase from just under six per cent in 1971. Since 2002, civil marriages can be held in ‘approved places’ outwith registration offices. In 2006, 7,346 civil ceremonies (25 per cent of all marriages and 48 percent of civil marriages) were conducted at such ‘approved places'.

Regional differences

When the effect of different age structures is removed, most of the rural areas in Scotland have relatively low death rates and high fertility, whereas death rates across much of the Central Belt are particularly high. Deaths from lung cancer and heart disease are particularly high in Glasgow City, Inverclyde and some other West of Scotland authorities and their situation relative to the rest of Scotland has in many cases worsened in the last 20 years.

Patterns of migration vary. The four largest cities show large inflows of young people attracted by opportunities to study and work, whereas the suburban areas around the same cities show inflows of people later on in life (looking for larger homes to start families). In many rural areas, there is an outflow of young people looking to study and work, but consistent (if moderate) inflows of people at all later ages. Finally, there are some authorities in the West Central Belt which show very low levels of migration in or out at all ages.

The level of migration from outside Scotland also varies, with the four city council areas having relatively high levels of births to mothers from outside the UK. In Moray, Argyll & Bute and the Scottish Borders, many births were to mothers from elsewhere in the UK. In contrast, the West Central Scotland areas around Glasgow City had very low proportions of births to mothers not from Scotland.

Notes to News Editors

Scotland's Population 2006, the Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends is available on this website. Chapter 1 explains how Scotland’s population has changed in 2006. Chapter 2, contributed by Professor Michael Anderson of the University of Edinburgh and Nick Wright of the Genral Register Office for Scotland, explores some of the regional demographic variations across Scotland.

Media enquries for this news release.