Population up for Third Consecutive Year

27 April 2006

Scotland’s population has risen to 5,094,800 following an increase in births, fewer deaths and net migration of around 19,000, the Registrar General, Duncan Macniven said today.

The Registrar General was commenting on the publication of the 2005 Mid-Year Population Estimates report, giving changes in Scotland’s population from July 2004 to June 2005.

For the third consecutive year, Scotland’s population has increased. After adjustments, the total increase from 2004 to 2005 is 16,400 - and the population has grown by 30,600 since mid-2001.

The full report 'Mid-2005 Population Estimates Scotland' is available from this website.

The Registrar General for Scotland, Duncan Macniven said:

"The main reason why Scotland’s population has increased for three years in a row is because around 19,000 more people migrated to Scotland than moved away. This is the second highest figure for Scotland to date, 7,000 below last year’s record figure of 26,000."

"Although deaths still exceed births, it is encouraging that the number of births has continued to increase and that the number of deaths has fallen slightly."

The key points are:

Compared with the previous year there were almost 700 more births and over 1,000 fewer deaths. Despite this, deaths exceeded the number of births by about 2,300;
Over the year there was a net gain from migration of around 19,000, including a net gain of 12,500 people from the rest of the UK and a net gain of 7,300 people from overseas (including asylum seekers);
Around 57,300 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and around 44,800 left Scotland to go to in the opposite direction;
Around 35,400 people (including asylum seekers) came to Scotland from overseas and around 28,100 people left to go overseas. Short-term migrants are not included in these estimates because an international migrant is defined as someone who changes country of residence for 12 months or more;
Amongst the Council areas, Aberdeenshire, Highland and Falkirk had the largest percentage increases over the year at 1.1 per cent, closely followed by Edinburgh City at 0.9 per cent. East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire experienced the largest percentage decreases at 0.6 per cent, followed by Midlothian and Aberdeen City both with percentage decreases of 0.5 per cent;
Of Council areas which have been decreasing, Dundee City’s population increased for the first time since mid-1995, and both Eilean Siar and Glasgow City increased for the second year in a row;
Of the NHS Board areas, Highland (+1.1 per cent), Forth Valley (+0.9 per cent), Lothian (+0.6 per cent) and Fife (+0.6 per cent) had the largest percentage increases. The only two NHS Board areas with percentage decreases were Argyll & Clyde (-0.4 per cent) and Ayrshire and Arran (-0.2 per cent);
Population density is 65 persons per square kilometre in Scotland and ranges from 8 persons per square kilometre in Highland Council area to 3,298 persons per square kilometre in Glasgow City Council area.

Notes to News Editors

1. Comparable figures for Northern Ireland will be published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) in July 2006 and figures for England, Wales and the UK will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in August 2006.

2. Migration is derived from three key sources of data. The National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) for moves between health board areas within the UK, with migration at council area level within Scotland estimated using anonymised data from the Community Health Index (CHI). The source of the information about overseas migration is the International Passenger Survey (IPS). It is based on a small sample for Scotland, and hence there is a higher risk of error than with the remainder of the population estimates. A National Statistics Quality Review of International Migration Statistics was carried out by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and a report was published which recommended ways of improving the quality and accuracy of international migration. An implementation plan has been developed by ONS but it will be some time before improved data sources are available.

3. The UN definition of an international migrant is someone who changes their country of residence for 12 months or more. Therefore, short-term seasonal migrants (likely to include some migrant workers from Eastern Europe) will not be counted in the migration estimates nor in the population estimates. ONS is currently leading research into ways of measuring short-term migrants.

4. The 2001 Population Report published in September 2002, showed that previous population estimates had exaggerated the population of Scotland by some 50,000 - largely because of errors in estimates of migration in the 1980s and 1990s. To ensure that future estimates do not continue to overestimate the population, a component for unmeasured migration has been included in the latest figures – a reduction of 1,500 people.

5. The report 'Mid-2005 Population Estimates Scotland' gives estimated population figures for the whole of Scotland and for Council and NHS Board areas. Mid-2005 population estimates taking into account the abolition of Argyll & Clyde NHS Board area will be published with the Registrar General’s Annual Review in July 2006. Mid-2005 population estimates for smaller areas (data zones with populations of between 500 and 1,000 households) will be published in October 2006. Mid-2004 population estimates for individual settlements will be published in June 2006. The next set of projections of Scotland’s future population, based on the 2006 mid-year estimates, will be published in the autumn of 2007, followed by the sub-national projections for administrative areas late 2007/early 2008. Household projections based on the 2004 population projections will be published on 31 May 2006.

6. A useful summary table 'Table 4 Components of population change by administrative area: 2004-2005' and a paper 'Mid-2005 Population Estimates Scotland' give details of these estimates and are available on this website.

7. For further information on the availability of more detailed data and tables, please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.