Population Projections for Scotland's Council Areas

20 December 2005

Figures released on '2004-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas' show some areas will continue to increase while other parts are set to decline, according to the latest sub-national population projections today.

The report is based on the 2004 mid-year population projections for Scotland, published in October this year.

Duncan Macniven, the Registrar General for Scotland, said:

"The latest projections for Scotland’s local areas are interesting. Earlier this year we announced that Scotland’s population is projected to rise over the next 15 years before declining slowly. Breaking this data down to individual council areas shows that around half are set to increase and half to decrease in population.

West Lothian has the largest projected increase of 21 per cent, followed by the Scottish Borders (15 per cent). Most areas near to, and including, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in population over the next 15 years. Aberdeen City and Dundee City show the greatest decrease of 24 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.

Compared to our previous projections, we are expecting higher populations in most council areas."

The figures show that:

most council areas near to, and including Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size by 2024;
Aberdeen City, Glasgow City, Dundee City and areas in the west of Scotland and the Island councils are projected to decline by 2024;
the greatest projected increase in population during the period 2004 to 2024 for council areas is in West Lothian at 21 per cent, followed by Scottish Borders with 15 per cent;
Aberdeen City and Dundee City have the largest projected decreases at 24 per cent and 15 per cent respectively;
for NHS board areas, Borders (15 per cent) and Lothian (11 per cent) show the greatest projected increases in population between 2004 and 2024. The largest decreases are projected in Western Isles (15 per cent) and Shetland (11 per cent);
Scotland’s population is projected to age between 2004 and 2024 in most administrative areas;
for council areas the number of children aged under 15 years old is projected to decrease in all areas apart from the Scottish Borders (an increase of 7 per cent), West Lothian (5 per cent) and Edinburgh City (3 per cent). The projected decline in other areas ranges from 43 per cent in Aberdeen City to 0.1 per cent in Fife;
by 2024, the population of working age (taking account of the change in women’s state pension age between 2010 and 2020) is projected to increase in 14 council areas and decrease in 18, increasing the most in West Lothian (20 per cent) and decreasing the most in Aberdeen City (28 per cent);
the population of pensionable age (taking account of the change in women’s state pension age between 2010 and 2020) is projected to increase by 2024 in all but 2 council areas (Glasgow City and Dundee City are projected to fall by 13 per cent and 5 per cent respectively). Similar projected changes in age structure can also be seen in NHS board areas.

Notes to News Editors

This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrar General for Scotland prepares national population projections for Scotland and the assumptions on which they are based. The 2004-based national population projections were announced in a news release issued by the Registrar General for Scotland on 20 October 2005. Projected populations for administrative areas of Scotland, consistent with the national projections, have been prepared by the Registrar General for Scotland and are the subject of this news release.
The latest projection is based on the Registrar General’s 'Mid-2004 Population Estimates, Council and Health Board Areas' and replaces the previous 'Population Projections Scotland (2002-based) - Population projections by sex, age and administrative area'. The projections are the result of assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration patterns based on past trends. Therefore the projections are not a prediction of what will happen, but simply a projection of what would be the outcome on the basis of particular assumptions. The table 'Projected population of Scotland (2004 based) by council and NHS board area, 2004 - 2024' (12Kb pdf file) is available, presenting the results of the population projections for council and NHS board areas. The paper '2004-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas' with more detail is also available from this site.
The next set of national and sub-national projections, based on the 2006 population estimates, will be published in 2007.

Enquiries

More detailed tables of the results by age and sex for administrative areas, are also available from this site or by contacting Statisitcs Customer Services using our Contact Form.