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Fall in Scotland's Population Deferred

Scotland's population is projected to continue falling slowly according to figures issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland - but will not dip below 5 million until 2017.

Commenting on the results, the Registrar General Duncan Macniven said:

The figures show that:

• the total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.06 million to below 4.9 million in 2028;
• the number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall to 82 per cent of its 2003 level by the year 2028;
• the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 8.5% from 3.16 million in 2003 to 2.89 million in 2028;
• the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise by more than 27 per cent to over 1.2 million in 2028;
• the population of males aged 65 and over is projected to increase by just over 60% by 2028, whilst for females the corresponding increase is just over 40%;
• the number of people under 16 and over pensionable age as a proportion of the working age population(dependency ratio) is projected to remain around 60 per 100 from 2003 to 2021. After 2021, and the completion of the change to the state pension age, the dependency ratio will rise to 69 per 100 working age population in 2028, and eventually reach 77 in 2043;
• and, the mean age of the population is projected to rise from just under 40 at the present time to 45 by 2028.

Notes to News Editors

1. The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrars General for Scotland, England and Wales, and Northern Ireland, normally produces population projections for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The last full set of projections was based on the mid year population estimate for 2002. The 2003-based interim projections have been presented because of population revisions which have been made for England & Wales in the light of adjustments made to the 2001 Census results. Due to a different methodology which was used in Scotland for the 2001 Census, it is not thought that these adjustments apply.
2. These projections are slightly higher than the previous set. This was largely due to a higher than expected level of in-migration in the year 2002/3 and consequent upward revisions to the assumptions for the immediate short-term. Although this is a relatively small increase, it has the effect of deferring the point at which the population would fall below 5 million from 2009 to 2017. It should be stressed that the precise point at which the population reaches a particular level can be very sensitive to relatively small changes in the underlying assumptions, and should therefore be treated with caution.
3. The projections show what happens if assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration are realised. The assumptions are based largely on past trends in fertility, mortality and migration and do not take account of any future changes as a result of policy initiatives.
4. The next full set of national projections, based on the 2004 population estimates and will be published in 2005.
5. The results of the projections become more uncertain the further ahead they are projected. Therefore the results concentrate on the period up to 2028, though longer-term projections to 2043 are available
6. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
7. Corresponding information for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries is available from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) web site (www.gad.gov.uk)
8. More detailed breakdowns of the results presented above, by age and sex, are available from GROS customer services or from the GAD web site (www.gad.gov.uk ).
9. For further information please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.