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Registrar General's Review of Demographic Trends
for 2003 Focuses on Migration

The Registrar General for Scotland today released his Annual Review of Demographic Trends .

As in past years, the report highlights trends in births, deaths and marriages. This year, a chapter has been dedicated to migration - within Scotland as well as to and from Scotland - drawing on information from the 2001 Census and from surveys of where students go after graduation.

The Registrar General for Scotland, Duncan Macniven, said:

"My report shows that Scotland's population rose slightly last year - by 2600 people. There were 712 more births than in 2002. Around 9000 more people moved to Scotland - from the rest of the UK, and the wider world - than moved away. That is good news for those who are alarmed at the prospect of demographic decline.

"However, population trends are hard to predict. Despite the small increase to Scotland's population last year, we face a challenge of a declining and ageing population in the future. Fertility rates remain lower than the rest of the UK - and are declining faster. Our death rate, though better than a decade ago, rose slightly last year and remains stubbornly higher than the rest of the UK. Within the enlarged EU, only Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania and Latvia fare worse.

"My report also shows interesting trends in marriage. There were more weddings in Scotland last year than in any year since 1994. The increase is mainly "tourist" weddings, where neither bride nor groom is a Scottish resident. But, in 2003, the number of 'Scots' couples rose by more than 800. Perhaps that was the effect of a change in the law in 2002, which allowed civil marriages outwith registration offices - which now account for over 10 per cent of all weddings.

"This year's report looks in detail at migration. In the year before the last Census, 1.5 per cent of the Scottish population - 77,000 people - had migrated to Scotland. Migration to and from the rest of the UK was more or less in balance - with Scots tending to migrate to London and the South West, and people from Yorkshire, the Humber and the West Midlands coming here. Overseas migration flows are harder to measure - but 29,000 residents at Census time had lived abroad a year before.

"Students are an interesting group of migrants. More people come to Scotland for their higher education than leave to study elsewhere. About 30 per cent of students from the rest of the UK who studied in Scotland, stayed here to work - and about 20 per cent of students from the rest of the EU."

The report highlights the following:

Population

• Scotland's population rose in the year to 30 June 2003 by 2,600 to 5,057,400
• The distribution of population within Scotland continues to change, with larger urban areas (apart from Edinburgh) declining and growth in rural areas (apart from the islands areas) and in the areas surrounding cities.
• Scotland's population is projected to fall below five million in 2009, reaching 4.84 million in 2027. By the latter year, the proportion of children under 16 is projected to have fallen by 19 per cent and that of people aged 75 and over to have increased by 61 per cent.

Fertility

• There were 52,432 births recorded in 2003, 712 more than in 2002 but half the number recorded in the early 1960s. It is too soon to say whether the small rise represents a turning point in the decline experienced prior to 2002.
• The total fertility rate was about three-fifths the level it was in 1971 and has been declining faster than in other parts of the UK.

Mortality

• In 2003, the two most common causes of death were cancer (26 per cent of deaths) and ischaemic heart disease (20 per cent).
• There were 560 deaths classified as suicide ("intentional self-harm") in 2003, 76 fewer than in 2002.
• Life expectancy at birth for males and females was 73.5 and 78.8 respectively, up from 64.4 and 68.7 for those born half a century earlier.

Migration

• The pattern of migration varies considerably by age group with, for example, a net inflow at age 19 from the rest of the UK and a net outflow at age 23. Migration is highest among young adults.
• Migration with the rest of the UK was more or less in balance. There were net gains from parts of England such as Yorkshire, the Humber and West Midlands but net losses to London and the South West
• There was a net loss to the rest of the UK in age groups 16 to 24 and 25 to 34 and net gains in all other age groups.
• Comparing the average ages of in-migrants and out-migrants, younger people are attracted to cities and university areas, and older people to rural areas.

Marriages

• There were 30,757 marriages in 2003 - the highest figure since 1994 but much fewer than the figures of around 40,000 seen in the 1960s.
• 2003 was the first full year in which civil marriages could be conducted in 'approved places' outside civil registration offices. In all, 3,465 civil ceremonies (11 per cent of all marriages and 25 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted in approved places.

Notes For News Editors

1. The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends (ISBN 1-874451-72-9, £6) is available from the General Register Office for Scotland and the GROS website. Further detailed statistical tables are available on the GROS website or by contacting GROS Statistics Customer Services.
2. For further information on the availability of more detailed data and tables, please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.
3. Digital photographs of the Registrar General in Edinburgh's Waverley Station, with passengers arriving and departing providing a backdrop which demonstrates the key theme of migration, are available from the press office.