2002-Based Population Projections for Scottish Areas
30th January 2004
Figures issued today by the Registrar General show the projected changes in population for the administrative areas of Scotland, by age and sex. See Population Projections Scotland (2002-based) - Population projections by sex, age and administrative area.
Commenting on the results the Registrar General, Duncan Macniven, said that:
"These latest projections reflect recent demographic trends in individual Council and Health Board areas. Although at the Scotland level the population is projected to continue declining slowly, the regional pattern of projected change is variable with some areas experiencing projected population increases."
The figures show that:
- the total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.05 million in 2002 to 4.94 million in 2018 (falling below 5 million in 2009);
- within Scotland, Lothian (plus 7 per cent) and Forth Valley (plus 4 per cent) health board areas show the greatest projected increases in population between 2002 and 2018;
- amongst the council areas, the greatest projected increase in population during the period 2002 to 2018 is in West Lothian with 15 per cent, followed by East Lothian with 12 per cent. Eilean Siar and Dundee City have the largest projected decreases at 17 and 14 per cent, respectively.
Notes to News Editors
- The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrar General for Scotland prepares national population projections for Scotland and the assumptions on which they are based. The 2002-based national population projections were announced in a news release issued by the Registrar General for Scotland on 18 December 2003. Projected populations for administrative areas of Scotland, consistent with the national projections, have been prepared by the Registrar General for Scotland and are the subject of this news release.
- The latest projection is based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 2002 and replace the previous 2000-based sub-national population projections. The projections are the result of assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration patterns based on past trends. Therefore the projections are not a prediction of what will happen, but simply a projection of what would be the outcome on the basis of particular assumptions.
- A table, Projected population of Scotland (2002-based) by council and health board area, 2002 to 2018, is available presenting the results of the population projections for council and health board areas. Media wishing a faxed copy of the table should contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form. A paper, entitled Population Projections Scotland (2002-based) - Population projections by sex, age and administrative area, with more detail is also available from this site.
- This is a National Statistics publication. National statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
- For information on the availability of more detailed data and tables, please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.