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Small Fall in Population of Scotland

Figures released on 30th June 2003 by the Registrar General for Scotland estimate Scotland's population to have been 5,054,800 on 30 June 2002, a fall of 9,400 since mid-2001.

The small fall (0.2 per cent) in population is mostly due to a natural decline, more deaths than births, which accounts for nearly two thirds of the fall. The remaining decline is a result of net out migration.

Amongst Council areas, East Lothian and West Lothian had the largest proportionate increase at 0.6 per cent each followed by Scottish Borders at 0.4 per cent. Aberdeen City (-1.2 per cent) and Dundee City, East Dunbartonshire, Eilean Siar (all -0.9 per cent) had the largest decreases.

Of Health Board areas, Borders and Fife had the largest increases at 0.4 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The largest decreases occurred in the Western Isles Health Board area (-0.9 per cent) and Argyll and Clyde, and Grampian (both -0.5 per cent).

Notes For News Editors

1. A table is available on presenting a summary of these estimates for Council and Health Board areas with details of the components of population change for the period mid-2001 to mid-2002. Media wishing a faxed copy of the table should telephone 0131 244 3073. Alternatively a copy of the tables and more detailed information on the 2002 mid-year population estimate by age, sex and administrative area (Council and Health Board area) is available here.
2. 2002 mid-year population estimates for the United Kingdom will be published by the Office for National Statistics on 7 August 2003.
3. The 2001 Census results published in September 2002 showed that previous population estimates had overestimated the population of Scotland by some 50,000. This overestimate is largely attributable to errors in previous estimates of migration in the 1980s and 1990s. To ensure that future mid-year estimates are robust and do not continue to overestimate the population, a component for unattributable population change has been included in the 2002 mid-year estimates. This adjustment is included within the net civilian migration column in the components of change table as it is assumed to be wholly comprised of unmeasured migration. At the Scotland level, this amounts to -2,600. More information on these adjustments can be found here
4. Further work is being undertaken to review the quality of the method and data sources used to estimate migration, in particular to reduce the level of unmeasured migration. This includes analysing the detailed migration results from the 2001 Census due out later this summer. In addition, a National Statistics Quality Review of International Migration Statistics is being carried out by the Office for National Statistics. This review, to be published later this year, will recommend ways of improving the quality and accuracy of international migration.
5. For further information on the availability of more detailed data and tables, please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.