You are in: Home › News › 2003 › Scotland's population set for continuing decline ›

Scotland's Population Set For Continuing Decline

Scotland's population is projected to continue falling slowly according to figures issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the results, the Registrar General Duncan Macniven said:
"These population projections are the first to take full account of the results from the 2001 Census. Like the last projection, they forecast a slow fall in Scotland's population over the next quarter century. Net emigration - of 1,500 people per year - plays a minor role. The biggest impact is the falling number of births."

The projections show that:

• the total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.05 million in 2002 to 4.84 million in 2027;
• the number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall to 80 per cent of its 2002 level by the year 2027;
• the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 8 per cent from 3.15 million in 2002 to 2.88 million in 2027;
• the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise by 25 per cent to nearly 1.2 million in 2027. (Without allowing for the change in the female pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020, the number of people over pensionable age would have increased by 45 per cent between 2002 and 2027.);
• the number of elderly people of 75 and over is projected to rise by 61 per cent to 585,234 in 2027, and the sex structure of the elderly population over 75 years old is projected to change from 35 per cent male in 2002 to 42 per cent male in 2027.

Notes for News Editors

1. The Government Actuary (in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrars General for Scotland, England and Wales, and Northern Ireland), normally produces population projections for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The previous "full set" of projections, published in November 2001, were based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 2000. However, "interim" projections, which took provisional account of the 2001 Census, were published in November 2002. The results from the 2001 Census showed a population 56,400 lower than previously estimated, due to an underestimate of migration loss from Scotland over the period 1981-2001.
2. The projections show what happens if assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration are realised. The assumptions are based largely on past trends in fertility, mortality and migration and do not take account of any future changes as a result of policy initiatives.
3. The results of the projections become more uncertain as time goes on. Therefore the results concentrate on the period up to 2027, though longer-term projections to 2042 are available.
4. The next set of sub-national population projections for Council and Health Board areas in Scotland will be published in January 2004.
5. The next full set of national projections, based on the 2004 population estimates, will be published in 2005.
6. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
7. Corresponding information for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries is available from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) web site (www.gad.gov.uk).
8. More detailed breakdowns of the results presented above, by age and sex, are available from GROS Statistics customer services or from the GAD web site (www.gad.gov.uk ). For further information please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.