2000-Based Population Projections For Scottish Areas

21st February 2002

Figures issued today by the Registrar General show the projected changes in population for the administrative areas of Scotland, by age and sex.

Commenting on the results the Registrar General, John Randall, said that:

"These latest projections reflect recent demographic trends in individual Council and Health Board areas. Although at the Scotland level the population is projected to continue declining slowly, the regional pattern of projected change is variable with some areas experiencing large projected population increases and decreases."

The figures show that:

the total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.11 million in 2000 to 5.01 million in 2016;
within Scotland, Lothian (plus 7 per cent) and Forth Valley (plus 3 per cent) are the only health board areas with projected increases in population between 2000 and 2016. Over the same period, Western Isles (minus 17 per cent) and Orkney (minus 10 per cent) health board areas show the largest projected decreases;
amongst the council areas, the greatest projected increases in population during the period 2000 to 2016 are in Stirling and West Lothian, both with 12 per cent, closely followed by East Lothian with 11 per cent. Dundee City and Eilean Siar have the largest projected decreases at 19 and 17 per cent, respectively.

Notes To News Editors

The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrar General for Scotland prepares national population projections for Scotland and the assumptions on which they are based. The 2000-based national population projections were announced in a news release issued by the Registrar General for Scotland on 15 November 2001. Projected populations for administrative areas of Scotland, consistent with the national projections, have been prepared by the Registrar General for Scotland and are the subject of this news release.
The latest projection is based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 2000 and replace the previous 1998 based sub-national population projections. The projections are the result of assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration patterns based on past trends. Therefore the projections are not a prediction of what will happen, but simply a projection of what would be the outcome on the basis of particular assumptions.
A table is available presenting the results of the population projections for council and health board areas. Media wishing a faxed copy of the table should telephone Jackie Telford on 0131 244 2598, alternatively the table can be viewed in Adobe Acrobat Portable Document Format.
A booklet, Population Projections, Scotland (2000 Based), providing some commentary on the results as well as further information on the methodology and assumptions used, will be published in March 2002.
This is a National Statistics publication. National statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

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