Slow Fall in Scotland's Population Projected

1st November 2002

Scotland's population is projected to continue falling according to figures issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the results, the Registrar General John Randall said:
"These interim population projections are the first to take account of the results from the 2001 Census. They project a more rapid fall in Scotland's population than in the previous projection, but still at a relatively slow rate. While a small annual loss of 1,000 persons a year through migration is assumed, the biggest impact on the decline is the falling number of births."

The figures show that:

The total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.06 million in 2001 to 4.83 million in 2026;
The number of births in Scotland is projected to fall by 11 per cent from 52,687 in 2001 to under 47,000 in 2026;
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall to 81 per cent of its 2001 level by the year 2026;
The number of people over pensionable age is projected to rise by 15 per cent to 1.09 million in 2026. (Without allowing for the change in the pension age of women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020, the number of people over pensionable age would have increased by 36 per cent between 2001 and 2026.)

Notes For News Editors

The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrars General for Scotland, England and Wales, and Northern Ireland, produces population projections for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The previous projections, published in November 2001, were based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 2000. However the results from the 2001 Census showed a 56,400 lower population than previously estimated, due to an underestimate of migration loss from Scotland over the period 1981-2001. A new interim set of 2001-based population projections has been produced to be consistent with the 2001 mid-year estimates and the new information on migration. It is not currently possible to take account of the full results of the 2001 Census, hence the interim status of these projections. The next full set of national projections, taking account of the full results of the 2001 Census, will be based on the 2002 population estimates and will be published in November 2003.
The results of the projections become more uncertain the further ahead they are projected. Therefore the results concentrate on the period up to 2026, though longer-term projections to 2041 are available.
The next set of sub-national population projections for Council and Health Board areas in Scotland will be published next year or early in 2004.
This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Enquiries

Corresponding information for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries is available from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) website (http://www.gad.gov.uk) or by contacting GAD.
More detailed breakdowns of the results presented above, by age and sex, are available from GROS customer services or from the GAD website (http://www.gad.gov.uk). For further information please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.