Continuing Fall in Scotland's Population Projected

15th November 2001

Scotland's population is projected to continue falling according to figures issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the results, the Registrar General John Randall said:

"Under these latest projections, which reflect recent demographic trends, the population of Scotland is projected to continue declining slowly. The biggest factor influencing the population change is the falling number of births. Migration flows to and from Scotland are projected to balance out in the future."

The figures show that:

The total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.11 million in 2000 to 4.93 million in 2025;
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall to 78 per cent of its 2000 level by the year 2025;
The number of people over pensionable age is projected to rise by 15 per cent to nearly 1.1 million in 2025. (Without allowing for the change in the pension age of women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020, the number of people over pensionable age would have increased by 36 per cent between 2000 and 2025.)

Notes To News Editors

The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrars General for Scotland, England and Wales, and Northern Ireland, produces population projections for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The latest projection is based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 2000, and replaces the previous 1998 based projections. The results of the projections become more uncertain the further ahead they are projected. Therefore the results concentrate on the period up to 2025, though longer-term projections to 2040 are available.
A short paper, The Projected Population of Scotland (2000 Based), is available providing some commentary on the results as well as further information on the methodology and assumptions used.
The Registrar General will publish sub-national population projections for council and health board areas in Scotland consistent with the national projections early in 2002.
This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Enquiries

Corresponding information for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries is available from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) website (www.gad.gov.uk) or by contacting GAD
More detailed breakdowns of the results presented above, by age and sex, are available from GROS customer services or from the GAD website (www.gad.gov.uk). For further information please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact Form.