Rise Projected for Scotland's Population

23 October 2007

Scotland’s population is projected to rise over the next 25 years before falling slowly, according to the Projected Population of Scotland (2006-based) report issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

The population is not projected to fall below five million until 2076, rather than 2036 as the last projection suggested.

Commenting on the results, the Registrar General Duncan Macniven said:
“The recent upswing in births and migration to Scotland have paved the way for continued gradual increase in Scotland’s population until it reaches almost 5.4 million in 2031 - well above its previous peak of 5.24 million in 1974. We will still be an ageing nation – in 2031, we expect there will be 18 people over 75 for every 10 today.”

The report shows that:

the population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.12 million in 2006 to a high of 5.37 million in 2031 before slowly declining, falling below 5 million in 2076
the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 7 per cent from 0.92 million in 2006 to 0.86 million. in 2031
the number of people of working age [Footnote 1] is projected to increase slightly from 3.21 million in 2006 to 3.23 million in 2031 (an increase of around 0.4 per cent)
the number of people of pensionable age [Footnote 2] is projected to rise by around 31 per cent from 0.98 million in 2006 to 1.29 million in 2031
the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 81 per cent from 0.38 million in 2006 to 0.69 million in 2031
the dependency ratio – the ratio of persons aged under 16 or over pensionable age to those of working age - is projected to rise from around 59 per 100 in 2006 to 67 per 100 in 2031.

While Scotland’s population is projected to fall from 2031, the populations of the other three countries in the UK are projected to rise to 2031, and continue rising, except for Northern Ireland, where the population is projected to peak by around mid-century and then slowly decline.

The new projections, based on the mid-year population estimates for 2006, suggest a higher population than did the previous projections based on the mid-2004 estimates. This is because in recent years there has been an increase in the number of births, a fall in the number of deaths and a rise in the number of people migrating to Scotland. As a result, population decline is deferred to the 2030s. The difference in projected age structure between the two sets of projections is small, with the latest projections showing a slightly smaller percentage of people being of pensionable age and slightly higher percentages of children and working age population in 2031.

So the population is now projected to fall below five million in about 2076 rather than 2036 – although the precise point at which it reaches a particular level is very sensitive to relatively small changes in the underlying assumptions, particularly looking so far ahead.

Because the projections are based on the uncertain number of births, deaths and migrants far in the future, seven variants have been published, showing what would happen if the main projection turned out to be too high or too low. All the variants show an initial rise in Scotland’s population and a growing number of elderly people.

Footnote 1: Working age is 16-59 for women and 16-64 for men until 2010; between 2010 and 2020 working age becomes 16-64 for women. Between 2024 and 2026 working age for both men and women becomes 16-65 and changes again, in two further steps, to 16-67 by 2046.

Footnote 2: Pensionable age is 65 for men, 60 for women until 2010; between 2010 and 2020 pensionable age for women increases to 65. Between 2024 and 2026 the pensionable age for both men and women increases to 66 and changes again, in two further steps, to 68 by 2046.

Notes to News Editors

1. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

2. National population projections are prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the Registrars General for England & Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The assumptions are agreed in liaison with the devolved administrations, following consultation with key users of projections in each country and advice from an expert academic advisory panel. These are the first set of national population projections to be produced by ONS since responsibility for their production was transferred from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) in January 2006.

3. The projections show what happens if assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration are realised. The assumptions are based largely on past trends in these factors, and do not take account of any future changes as a result of policy initiatives.

4. The results of the projections become more uncertain the further ahead they are projected. Therefore the results concentrate on the period up to 2031, though longer-term projections to 2106 are available, as well as seven variant projections (alternative plausible projections) using alternative assumptions which help to put the principal long-term projections into context. Further variants will be published at the end of November on the GAD website.

5. Projections for council and health board areas will be published on 22 January 2008. The next set of national projections, based on the 2008 population estimates, will be published in 2009.

6. Corresponding information for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries is available on the GAD website or through ONS.