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Household Projections for Scotland 2008-based
1. Main Points
This report gives forward projections of the number of households in Scotland up to 2033, based on the estimated population of Scotland in mid-2008.
- Between 2008 and 2033, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 21 per cent to 2.8 million - an average of 19,250 additional households per year.
- Over the same period, Scotland’s population is projected to increase by seven per cent. Most of the projected increase, therefore, is the result of more people living alone or in smaller households. The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.18 people in 2008 to 1.93 in 2033.
- Scotland’s population is ageing, with a projected increase in the number of people in the older age groups (60+) and fewer people in the younger age groups (0-59). This has an impact on household structure, as children tend to live in larger households and older people in smaller ones.
- There is a large projected increase in households containing just one adult, from 841,000 (36 per cent of all households) in 2008 to over 1.25 million (45 per cent) in 2033.
- Older women are more likely to live alone than older men. But the number of men living alone is projected to increase more rapidly, from 370,000 households in 2008 to 578,000 in 2033, an increase of over a half. The number of men living alone who are aged 85 or over is projected to increase from 12,000 to 40,000.
- There are also projected increases in other small households. Households containing just two adults without children are projected to rise from 702,000 to 866,000, however there is a projected 21 per cent decrease in the number of households of two or more adults without children in the 40-59 age groups. The number of households containing one adult with children is projected to rise from 163,000 to 238,000.
- In contrast, the number of larger households is projected to fall, with households containing two or more adults with children decreasing from 433,000 (19 per cent of all households) in 2008 to 315,000 (11 per cent) by 2033. There is also a projected decrease in the number of households containing three or more adults, from 192,000 to 140,000.
- Households headed by people aged 60 or over are projected to increase by almost 50 per cent from 783,000 to 1.15 million between 2008 and 2033. In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 60 are projected to increase by just seven per cent, to around 1.66 million. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is projected to more than double from 73,000 to 196,000.
Local authority figures
- The largest projected increases in the number of households between 2008 and 2033 are in Clackmannanshire (41 per cent), East Lothian (40 per cent) and Perth and Kinross (38 per cent). Aberdeenshire, City of Edinburgh, West Lothian, and Orkney Islands also have projected increases of over 30 per cent. In contrast, Inverclyde has a projected decrease of five per cent.
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