Scottish Statistics Plan 2008-09 Population and Migration

Appendix 2 - Main Targets for 2008/09

Our targets for the coming year are:

1. Census

Plan and implement a development programme towards a high quality Census in 2011.

Continue planning for a 2011 Census, working with the other UK Census Departments in a way that will deliver a Census that meets both Scottish needs and key UK needs while providing good value for money.
- Develop, by May 2008, enumeration strategies to maximise inclusion of people who are resident in a communal establishment, or otherwise require special enumeration arrangements.
- Develop the census questionnaire by:

Completing cognitive testing of income, language and qualifications questions (April 2008).
Agreeing a set of topics/questions for the 2009 Rehearsal & 2011 Census (April 2008).
Working closely with the SaSCinS contractor(s) to complete technical design of questionnaires, get questionnaires ready for delivery and have internet completion service ready to start.
- Work closely with other UK Census Offices in establishing key requirements of census data users, including an online interactive consultation process (September 2008); research for preparation of a 2011 Census data outputs & dissemination strategy (March 2009).
- Issue all customers with new versions of the Postcode Index and postcode boundary products in September 2008 and February 2009; respond to simple requests for geographic information within 5 working days and 10 working days for more complex requests.
- Procure and manage contracts in support of the 2011 Census, representing GROS interests and ensuring GROS and contractors meet contractual obligations.
- Negotiate with preferred bidder to achieve a value for money SaSCinS contract, letting the contract in June 2008.
- Prepare the Census Coverage Survey (CCS) by finalising the fieldwork strategy (May 2008) and defining CCS sample areas (January 2009).
- Prepare the Census Quality Survey (CQS) by developing a strategy and operational design for a CQS, aimed at informing GROS on the accuracy and quality of a sample of around 300 completed census questionnaires from the 2009 Rehearsal (May 2008).
- Detail requirements, with the other UK Census offices, for the downstream processing system (August 2008); develop downstream processes, such as acceptance, reconciliation, disclosure control, edit & imputation, derived variables and adjustment (from September 2008).
- Deliver a Quality Management System that will provide:
  - A forum for all Branches to keep record of their quality procedures.
  - A system for procedure review and measurement.
  - A setting for the Peer Review network
  - A system for the Census Quality Manager to overview, manage and report on census quality.
Ensure that systems and services are delivered for the Census Rehearsal in 2009.
- Deliver and collect completed census questionnaires from around 50,000 households for the 2009 Census Rehearsal. This will require:
  - Instructions and training material for around 100 temporary field staff (April to December 2008).
  - A contract with a postal service provider (May 2008).
  - Recruitment and payment of 100 temporary field staff (May 2008 to March 2009).
  - Two field offices (venues for recruiting, training, secure storage) (July 2008).
  - A targeted publicity campaign (September 2008 to March 2009)
  - Close working with the SaSCinS contractor(s) throughout the development, testing and delivery phases to ensure a value for money and quality service for the 2009 Rehearsal.
- Develop, test and deliver information communications technology (ICT) solutions to support the 2009 Rehearsal, including field management information system, field office and remote office ICT equipment, geography database, field staff payroll system, security co-ordination, enumeration district planning tools and field staff map systems.
- Work closely with the contractor(s) throughout the development, testing and delivery phases up to the 2009 Rehearsal, to ensure a value for money and quality service, including:
Public Assistance services ready to start (January 2009).
Paper Data Capture ready to start (February 2009).
Questionnaires ready for delivery (February 2009).
Internet completion service ready to start (February 2009).

Prepare geography services for Census, including planning enumeration districts for 2009 Census Rehearsal areas, producing final address database for Rehearsal and completing map production of Rehearsal areas for use by field staff.

2. Demography

Provide the demographic context and information for the sound government of Scotland.

Collect and maintain the records (e.g. births, deaths, the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR)) that are the foundation for the information we provide on population, fertility, mortality, migration etc., in a way that is consistent with best practice in the collection, storage and archiving of information.
- Ensure that information on all vital events registered in 2008 is received and processed in line with stated performance targets and publication deadlines.
- Develop an efficient and user friendly replacement for the current vital events IT system, working from the project plan which was agreed in November 2007, and completing requirements and design by July 2008. The system will be developed in stages, with all the work scheduled to be completed in late 2009.
- Operate and further develop the NHSCR by adding extra details onto the register by 30^th April 2008, enhancing the service to the National Health Service, local authorities, medical researchers and others.
- Implement the local authority Citizen Account identity check on an incremental basis, beginning in mid-2008.
Publish the Registrar General’s Annual Report and other demographic information for different geographic areas within Scotland to meet customer needs and National Statistics standards, and inform and foster debate on demographic issues in the Scottish Government (SG) more widely.
- Produce the following regular outputs by publishing on our own GROS website and also via a link to our website from the UK Statistics Authority’s website:
  - Estimates of number of households — May 2008
  - National and sub-national household projections — May 2008
  - Dwelling counts for smaller areas — May 2008
  - National and sub-national population estimates — June 2008
  - Quarterly vital events data — June, September, December 2008, March 2009
  - Registrar General's Annual Review — August 2008
  - Vital events reference tables — August 2008
  - Drug-related deaths — August 2008
  - Life expectancy for council and health board areas - September 2008
  - Small area population estimates - November 2008
  - Life expectancy for special areas — January 2009
  - Preliminary annual vital events data — March 2009
- Improve annual population estimates and projections by:
  - Implementing the recommendations of the Inter-Departmental Migration Task Force and improving migration data generally through participation in the migration statistics improvement programme.
  - Collaborating with ONS and NISRA to establish and publish UK cross border migration and to develop methodology to replace the current system of internal migration estimation.
  - Investigating the scope for providing estimates below datazone level for the purposes of providing estimates for a range of different geographies.
  - Continuing with work on estimating short-term migrants for Scotland and estimating the distribution of international migrants to areas within Scotland. It may also be possible, subject to the availability of sufficient staffing resources, to investigate the feasibility of further improvements such as, for example, mid year population estimates and projections by ethnicity or small area population estimates by people in households / communal establishments.
- Develop liaison arrangements at the local level with a view to using local intelligence and data sources to improve population and migration information and provide additional support to deliver single outcome agreements. information for use in the quality assurance of population projections.
- Review methodology used for estimating armed forces population in preparation for the 2011 Census.
- Identify additional ways of improving the forward household projections.
- Meet all customer requests for demographic data within published timescale (generally within 5 to 10 working days) or by an agreed date in the case of more complex requests; provide appropriate advice and analysis to support users of demographic statistics, through liaison with key users, user groups and publication in journals and presentations.
- Disseminate agreed statistical outputs via the web and other means; make further changes to the GROS and Scotland's Census Results OnLine (SCROL) websites to ensure they serve users well.
- Participate fully in the Demography Analytical Working Group.
- Provide advice and briefing to the Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy Directorate.
- Lead the demography workstream of the British Irish Council.
- Organise a user event on improving population statistics in October 2008.
- Discuss with the Household Analysis Review Group (HARG) and the Scottish Government housing statistics branch the requirement for and feasibility of producing household estimates at local authority level, by tenure.

Review, pilot and, where possible, implement ways to meet user needs for the kind of information normally collected in a Census, from alternative sources such as administrative records or surveys.

Continue to investigate the potential usefulness of a wide range of administrative and survey sources in supporting and enhancing demographic statistics e.g. on population, fertility, mortality, migration and households.
- Update current collections and reports:
  - School Census - August 2008
  - Child benefit - October 2008
  - Older persons — October 2008
  - DVLA car registration — November 2008
  - Electoral registration — February 2009
- Begin work in March 2009 on evaluating the potential of HESA data to inform population estimates and census.
- Assess, by September 2008, the potential of the School Census to inform migration estimates.
- Work with colleagues in GROS and ONS to develop use of administrative data for Census purposes.
- Establish the NHS Central Register as a statistical source and provide statistical support to users in GROS
Manage work on research projects linking Census with other data in compliance with current legislation and National Statistics protocols and ensure lessons are learned.
Continue development of the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) database, in conjunction with the SLS team, in the following ways:
- Update with post-2001 events — Summer 2008
- Complete 1939 linkage feasibility study — December 2008
- Linkage with education data — December 2008
Hold a half day seminar on the SLS at the Scottish Government in April 2009 and continue to promote and develop use of the data.
Manage work on the Ethnicity and Health study and ensure the opportunities to develop census coverage work is fully utilized (complete census coverage matching to the Community Health Index by May 2008).

General Register Office for Scotland
July 2008

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