GROS Strategic Corporate, General and Key Business Objectives for 2007-08

On-going

Release ad-hoc and published information on demography (e.g. for population, households, vital events etc.) for different geographical areas. Continue to review and improve the statistics section of the GROS website

On-going

We answer a large number of requests (over 1,300 in 2006) covering a wide range of topics such as the Census, population, households, births, deaths etc. Our main customers consist of local authorities & other public bodies, other Government departments, the private sector, the media and the wider public.

To meet all customer requests for demographic data within published timescale (within 5 working days for almost all requests), providing appropriate advice and analysis as required.

To get closer to 100% success in meeting customers’ deadlines. In 2006, for requests which were classed as "standard 5 day", we answered 99% within the stated timescale while, for the more detailed "standard 10 day" requests, 90% were answered on time.

Well targeted information and advice helps customers use our data effectively in policy analysis, service delivery and research.

Publication of Registrar General’s Annual Report — July 2007

Other publications as set out in pre-publication list on the web.

Life expectancy fact sheet — April 2007

Data behind charts added to all new publications on web, with effect from April 2007

New HTML version of publications produced by Astron for all large publications, with effect from April 2007

Add interactive tool to statistics section of website — December 2007

We are responsible for the publishing and dissemination of statistical outputs both on paper and on the Web. Around 15 or so statistical publications are produced each year. This includes the Annual Review of Demographic Statistics, which provides a summary of the main demographic trends in the previous year and historic content, as well as containing a specialist chapter on a particular subject. We also make improvements to the statistics section of the website.

To disseminate via the web and other means, agreed statistical outputs including the Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Statistics 2006; to make changes to the statistics section of the GROS website to ensure it serves users well.

The following improvements are planned for this year:

1. New look to Statistics section of website with new homepages to make it easier to locate material.

2. New, more consistent, standard layout to publications.

3. Having data behind charts available for users on the web.

4. Look at whether users of the web would benefit from an interactive tool to extract the information they want quickly.

5. Save in staff resources by having printer prepare the html version of publications to go on the web.

6. Consider the production of a factsheet which would be an abbreviated version of published reports.

7. Consider extending the scope of material available in Chapter 1 of the Registrar General’s Annual Review.

Provide maximum publicity for information about Scotland’s population and provide interesting and thought provoking publications which satisfy customers’ demand for good quality publications and which are easy to locate on the web.

On-going

Publish household estimates and household projections, and develop dwelling and household estimates for small geographical areas). Provide appropriate advice and analyses to support users, through liaison with key users, user groups, and presentations.

Publications :-

Dwelling counts for smaller areas - May 2007

Household estimates in each council — Spring 2008

Household estimates for smaller areas — Spring 2008

Household projections - Spring 2008

Household estimates and projections are mainly used for informing local authority decisions about housing need and service provision.

To review the methodology for producing forward household projections and publish new projections by Spring 2008, publish estimates of the number of households in each council by Spring 2008, publish dwelling counts for smaller areas by May 2007 and develop household estimates for smaller areas, based on information from Council Tax systems, by Spring 2008.

Identify and develop new sources of statistics on households and dwellings, to replace the information that will be lost when Council Tax is abolished.

The household estimates have recently been reviewed, and the household projections methodology is currently being reviewed. The small area household estimates are new statistics. The replacement statistics on dwellings and households will be new.

Improved quality of products through producing household statistics that are more relevant, accurate and timely, make use of new sources of data, and link more closely with our population statistics.

Initial report on comparison of Census Test and DNA address lists — Summer 2007

Good quality address lists are of interest to many organisations (including GROS for statistical analysis and Census planning). They are needed for compiling Census address lists for enumerators, and they are also of importance for use in the Census Coverage Survey, which aims to determine the extent of under or over enumeration in the Census.

To represent GROS interests inaddress lists projects, including the Definitive National Address (DNA) project and Assessors’ Portal. To compare the address lists used in the 2006 Census Test with address lists from the DNA project.

By comparing Census Test and DNA address lists, we will improve our understanding of the quality of the DNA address lists. This may help identify ways in which they can be improved, and their value to organisations interested in address lists.

Improved address information will have benefits for GROS interests in household statistics, geography and the Census. It will inform Census planning fieldwork and enable the Census Coverage Survey to be carried out more effectively.

On-going

To provide ICT support and services for delivering statistical and geographic outputs, and oversee their data security needs. This work includes:

enhancements to Census results website ( SCROL)

data matching tools

household and population projections

Vital Events

GIS system for geographic outputs

various

This year we will be developing some key systems to support demography product outputs and alternative data source deliverables.

To review and further develop the demographic projection system to ensure the production of the bi-annual demographic projections by October 2007; to evaluate data matching tools to identify the most suitable for GROS projects by July 2007; to ensure suitable data matching tool is available to support ethnicity matching and record linkage work by end September 2007.

Enhancing the systems which underlie the household and population projections will help improve the quality of demographic statistics. These projections are used for planning purposes by a range of users both within and outwith government.

In-house expertise is built up in using data matching tools. This expertise will be invaluable in quality assuring a range of demographic statistics and in trialling a small scale administrative census at the time of the next census.

The statistical business functions are supported as required and we achieve the improvements stated above.

On-going

8.4.1 To publish information on population, migration, etc for different geographical areas and work with the Scottish Executive to meet customer needs. Provide appropriate advice and analyses to support users, through liaison with key users, user groups, publication in journals and presentations

See bullet points

GROS publishes a range of regular statistical outputs on population and migration. These are used by a wide range of users in central and local government (e.g. for strategic and service planning), academia and the general public.

To produce the following regular outputs:

National and sub-national population estimates April 2007

Life expectancy for council and health board areas September 2007

National population projections October 2007

Small area population estimates November 2007

Sub-national population projections December 2007 or January 2008

Life expectancy for special areas January 2008

Settlement and locality population estimates tbc

See specific Key Objective on improvements

Publication of accurate statistics on time, to inform policies and foster debate on demographic issues in the Scottish Executive and more widely.

Review of methodology for producing population estimates for small areas — June 2007

Assessment of impact of new international migration methodology on the mid-year estimates and action plan — Sept 2007

Improved population projections at sub-national level — Oct 2007

Population and migration statistics for Scotland and areas within Scotland, are used by a wide range of users, mainly to inform policies and for planning purposes. There is no comprehensive source for estimating migration and hence it is the most difficult component of population change to measure and predict. Population projections are currently carried out in liaison with ONS every two years. Continuous improvement is sought in the methods and data sources used in population and migration statistics.

To improve flexibility of estimating population projections at sub-national level (by October 2007). To agree a timetable for updating range of population estimates for small areas and review the methodology in light of new sources (by June 2007). To assess the impact of new international migration methodology on the mid-year estimates (by September 2007). To implement relevant recommendations from Inter-departmental Migration Task Force.

Detailed above

Better population statistics, especially on migration, to inform strategies/policy design.

Population projections which are more flexible and can take account of different factors

Briefing associated with mid-year estimates - April 2007

Development of migration research workplan as part of the OCR mapping exercise - June 2007 (tbc)

Dissemination of results of SE/ESRC demography projects and development of second phase - October 2007

PAMS Migration seminar - November 2007

As the providers of key demographic statistics, GROS is involved in a range of areas of policy development, policy briefing and in research which uses our information. We also give presentations on our work to users.

To provide appropriate advice and analysis to support users of demographic statistics, through liaison with key users, user groups, publication in journals and presentations.

Contribute to the development of the GROS website

Increased impact of demographic information in the policy formulation and monitoring process.

On-going

To continue to investigate the potential usefulness of a wider range of administrative and survey sources in supporting and enhancing demographic statistics e.g. on population, fertility, mortality, migration and households.

Collate and publish electoral statistics

Various

Better use of data already collected across government, helps improve the quality of demographic statistics and makes their production more efficient. We are investigating the scope for replacing conventional Census-taking in future years, giving shorter-term benefits for the production of small area population estimates and other statistics

To continue to investigate the potential for a wider range of sources to contribute to current outputs and the development of more efficient population statistics systems:

Update current collections and reports: school census (August 2007), child benefit (October 2007), older persons(October 2007), DVLA car registration (November 2007), electoral registration (February 2008)

Begin work on evaluating additional data from school census to inform migration estimates (January 2008)

Complete evaluation of record linkage tools and carry out an experiment linking Census Test 2006 to Census 2001 (July 2007)

Begin work on evaluating scope for making more use of the NHS Central Register (March 2008)

Experience in record linkage not previously available in GROS and broaden our knowledge about other potential sources of demographic information

Better informed decisions on Census operations and production of demographic statistics, improving services to users

SE half day seminar to promote use of SLS — April 2007

Incorporation into the SLS of further data on births, deaths, etc — Summer 2007

Linking data from different sources can greatly increase the quality of population statistics. GROS supports good use of Census data to maximise the value obtained from it. We are promoting the use of outputs from data-matching projects, such as the Scottish Longitudinal Study, to improve the Scottish evidence base on demographic issues

To manage work on research projects linking Census with other data in compliance with current legislation and National Statistics protocols and ensure lessons are learned. To continue development of the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS ) database in conjunction with the SLS team following the launch of the study; to hold an SE half day seminar in April 2007 and to continue to promote and develop use of the data.

With the completion of the SLS we gain a rich new source to study the quality of Census 2001 which enables more informed decisions regarding the 2011 Census and the production of population estimates.

New data sources for policy research in the area of health, demography, ageing and social inequality to inform policy.

On-going

To collect and maintain the records (e.g. births, marriages, deaths, etc) that are the foundation for the information we provide on population, fertility, mortality, etc, in a way that is consistent with best practice in the collection, storage and archiving of information. To publish routine statistical information on vital events. To provide appropriate advice and analysis to support users, through liaison with key users, user groups, publication in journals and presentations.

Ongoing

The Branch receives information on vital events (births, marriages, divorces, deaths etc.) from local registrars, courts, procurators fiscal and others and compiles a statistical database that is used to prepare a wide range of outputs for users in central and local government, NHS Scotland, research organisations and the private sector.

To ensure that information on all vital events registered in 2007 is received and processed in line with published performance targets and publication deadlines.

Planned improvements include i) obtaining data on divorces electronically from the Scottish Courts Service and ii) disseminating more data to NHS Scotland via NHSNet.

Published performance targets and publication deadlines will be met, thereby meeting the needs of the data users.

Revised project plan to be prepared by 31 August 2007

The business critical but obsolescent vital events IT system needs to be rewritten using GROS’s standard software tools.

To develop an efficient and user friendly replacement for the current vital events IT system, preparing a revised project plan in Summer 2007 proposing scope and timescale for later stages of the project.

This is a major improvement.

Once completed, the new system will provide a more robust, easily maintained system for the future.

On-going

To maintain the NHSCR records on behalf of the NHS in Scotland, in a way that is consistent with best practice in the collection, storage and archiving of information. Maintain all health service and medical research updates.

Various

GROS manages the NHS Central Register, providing a service to the NHS, local authorities, medical researchers and others.

To operate and develop further a high quality Register, migrating the database to a Windows-based system by August 2007 and implementing the local authority Citizen Account identity check, on an incremental basis according to their access programme due to start with one authority by 1/10/2007.

The migration of the NHSCR data from a mainframe system on to a modern platform will allow more opportunity for analysis of the data.

Operate a high quality data base that holds records covering the population of Scotland.

Reduce mismatches to an absolute minimum and offer a professional, high quality service to our stakeholders.

Maintain confidentiality, applying Data Protection and Caldicott principles.